The Good News Is…

I don’t normally disclose my tactics ahead of a patch, but I will make an exception for you here.  I do it… for the people.

Bob Odenkirk circa 1997, and ahh yes, we meet again 180p.

I want to talk about a common topic today that arrives after every PTR patch launch, and that is stockpiling for 6.2.  This isn’t a troll post, there’s some damned fine critical thinking going on in here!

The issue with stockpiling anything for 6.2 is that we are looking down the barrel of a loaded gun, we could all be wrong and it will blow our damned head off like Daffy Duck.  6.2 is probably 2 months out from now, I’m thinking a mid-June release date.  If nothing earth shattering happens between now and then, we’re looking at severe price normalization.  Garrisons are going to produce insane levels of reagents in this patch with the number of people who will stockpile Rush Orders, primal spirits and garrison resources; especially since Rush Orders will produce 100% more reagents when used.

The Plague

That being said, I would avoid the following items on busy servers:

Temporal Crystals – While it’s still advisable to perform daily CDs on these, Rush Orders are going to make it possible to generate oodles of Fractured TCs the first minute the patch is released causing widespread price shock.  People will not be killing bosses immediately and progress will be slow giving time for the entire server population to go nuts with crafting and dump them on the open market.  I learned my lesson about this expansion’s progression with 6.1’s release, where we had massive amounts of transfers coming over to Illidan and dropping the price on crystals while demand was low.  Not that I’m proclaiming I won’t get fooled again, I’m proclaiming that pricing is flat out not going to be pretty enough for me to ask it out.

Fractured Temporal Crystals – See Temporal Crystals.  Crafting these via Rush Orders right now will be a bad idea as you’ll receive half the materials.  Crafting them via Primal Spirits is still a poor idea regardless.

Sorcerous Elements – With Rush Orders come lots of these, especially on larger servers.  People are also stockpiling them like mad right now in anticipation of a heavy Felblight market so they can upgrade the hell out of those 685 pieces.  While this is smart business, I’m anticipating market prices to hit the shitter on patch day as everyone tries to cash in on their adjusted prices and then causes a panic as they dump them.  Best to probably wait for patch day to buy them.

Alchemical Catalysts (Cats) – Since we’re entering the official second tier of raiding and Blackrock has been considered old news for a while now, I would only collect these if you’re making them yourself and not receiving good prices on them.  It makes sense to unload them asap so as not to absorb market fluctuation.  For myself, I’ve found it easiest to get rid of these through Alchemy transmutes of all flavors.  Because herbs are going to probably have price issues after release, flasks are going to probably lag behind as demand wanes.  Realistically if you can make money on anything besides flasks with these, I’d bet on those odds instead of laying against the flasks to have better pricing.

Savage Blood – These are going to continue to fall in price.  If you harvested your bloods and cannot eliminate the stock right now, you could always keep them around for upgrade tokens in 6.2.  The player base will be returning this summer and will be looking for quick upgrades so they can get up to speed from Blackrock with Heroic 715 level BOEs.  Most people’s attention will be on cashing in primals for the half-off Savage Bloods and chasing down Felblights and not grouping to trap wolves and clefthoofs.  One would believe the price of them would rise in that vacuum, but if you’re on my server, the duper spam will be incoming.  Groups to farm them are not nearly as present as they were a month ago, so the seedy underbelly of Warcraft’s material supply market will probably fall all over themselves to supply ridiculous amounts for the greedy fencing goblins to race to the bottom with at the local AH.  That is unless Blizzard fixes the duping issues that they claim do not exist.  Be right back, laughing so hard I’m going to hurt myself.

BOEs – I’d be very careful about going into the patch with any of these things in stock.  My experience has taught me that people want them, but the cost to make the first stage of the BOE is a lost opportunity.  It costs you 100 of a crafted reagent to make them, but the reagent could have been used to craft upgrades.  The lone exception on these will be weapons, as non-Mythic raiders will immediately desire upgrades to ilvl 705 weapons with perfect stats.  The PvP audience will be limited because they’re already rolling around 10 ilvls below so it’s hard to say if it will be worth it for them, and most people that are good at PvP won’t be waiting too long to get their new weapons anyhow.

Conversely

The things to look into buying will be (I’ll leave it to you for interpretation):

Draenic Dust – You cannot perform Rush Orders without it.  Expect the price of it to spike briefly after release as people start going through all their rush orders and long neglected accounts load up their work orders.  Further, once the price relaxes, people will again go back to using it for lesser enchants so having several hundred stacks of it laying around will be useful as LFRs are released and trade posts refuse to spawn the dust trader.  Thank me later.

Luminous Shards – Used exclusively for lesser enchants and daily CDs.  I would not suggest paying retail on these, but finding creative ways to go about getting your supply of them.  Depending on server demand, I would recommend a two week supply at minimum.

Ores – Again, Rush Orders and primal spirit crafting.  You cannot upgrade weapons without the reagents, and the prices have (at least here) relaxed since March.  Jewelcrafters are going to go nuts with the demand since Epic Gems make their long waited reappearance.  Miners will beat their heads against nodes in Tanaan at release but it’s going to be packed, and about a week after 6.2 releases you’ll see bots running all over themselves.  Get your “Report Player” macro ready!

Furs – If you’re like me, you’re overstocking this in your Garrison outhouse because you ran out of space.  My followers clean up with nothing but the finest in asswipe.  The market will demand this material because for many servers it is THE cheapest exchange for primal spirits.  Don’t get stuck paying full market retail in 6.2, because people will be skinning like maniacs come the opening of Tanaan Isle so have a nice stockpile around for when you need to supply 100% of the server with Epic Gems to upgrade that pretty gear they got out of Blackrock and the new raid.  Yes, I said Isle, because the this is the new Timeless Isle and most everyone will be spending time there collecting it while the smart people will be consulting my patented “Trader Schedule”.

Leather – I’m fairly certain people will wonder why here, but leatherworking has been one of my favorite professions going all the way back to TBC.  You supply so many different classes who also happen to be mostly hybrids – Druids, Shamans, Monks, Rogues and Hunters.  That’s almost half the freaking classes in the game, and with TJ promising to be the next stop for everyone with a skinner chasing Felblight, it’s possible we may see a slight shortage of mats at good prices.  I would suggest keeping a solid supply around, enough to make reagents for tokens and to execute daily CDs and WOs.

Herbs – Right now we aren’t assured we’ll see non-Tanaan Jungle contain herb nodes in any real quantity, the whole place looks corrupted and will play the RNG game for herbalists.  First, if the spawn points are anything like Timeless Isle was, collection is going to be brutal and you should expect bots to make an appearance within a week.  Second, when gathering anything, you usually want to see herbs of specific types.  That won’t be the case in Tanaan, and more than likely we’ll see even distribution of all herbs.  So the best place to get the herbs you want will be from the Garrison, as per usual with this expansion.  Lots of people will also be gathering at release, so get these as cheap as you can in the meantime.

Fish – Wait, what?  Why not just save it for Tanaan?  The issue is that you have new content, and we haven’t seen any new cooking recipes giving up the feasts or noodle carts giving everyone free +stats buffs.  The demand for high end foods (for good servers) should be nothing short of astounding.  Cutting edge raiders and tryhards are going to bring everything they can to the party including an extra 25 stats, and most important they just buy the crap they need.  While fishing is supposed to yield Felblights, reports I’m hearing state that they are from pools only so fishing bots are probably going to get killed here while others are going to fight over pools just like an STV fishing tournament.  Meanwhile, the smart play is to insure you have several thousand of each fish/meat type and don’t forget to stock the Crescent Saberfish while they’re cheap.  Come patch day the prices will escalate back to normal if not well above normal.

Crafted Reagents – All of them.  Stop making upgrade tokens RIGHT NOW.  All of them.  Don’t make another one.  Let the market go to hell and let everyone else blow their wads on it.  There’s almost no reason at this point to eliminate costly crafted reagents by selling dangerously underpriced upgrade tokens when the lowest cost reagents will take a week or two to replenish without Rush Orders or primal spirit recipes.  In case you don’t know what they are, these are the things you get for the various armor professions from daily CDs, work orders, or primal recipes.  Jewelcrafting will probably have the largest boom from all of this, because people with JCs will now have a massive choice to make between “make epic gems” or “make rares” or “make upgrades”.  Inscription will also have enormous demand as people who were unlucky with trinkets will want a heroic upgrade.  There are TWO levels of upgrades here with Mighty and Savage, both requiring insanely high amounts of the crafted reagents (175 and 350 reagents each respectively, with 30 and 60 Felblights required respectively).  Epic gems are going to require only 100 while requiring 15 Felblights.

The jury is still out as to how common Felblight will actually become and if either bots or dupers will destroy the prices in the market first.  I would probably hold onto some extra gold for purchasing the Felblights until we get further information.  If they become a rarer drop, expect prices to go nuts for quite a while.  If you’re into farming for “free” mats, dust off a gatherer or fisherman and go check the drop rate for us.

Primal Spirits – These will be used to craft the extra crafted reagents when you get short.  If you choose not to stock these, then you’ll probably be run out of the high end markets very, very quickly.  Watch for your favorite trader now.

Conclusion

As with all stockpiling, don’t go too heavy into collecting too many things.  I would encourage at most 40% of your bankroll so you don’t get hurt too bad.  You want to hedge heavily whenever stockpiling anything because if one market craters, you can at least make it up in another, or at least eliminate the stock all together in the AH and get some of your investment back.  And you treat this almost like gambling, as unforeseen forces can cause havoc.  We can’t all predict the future, but you can at least try.

I’ve always stockpiled as I went along so that I can take advantage of price escalations and market shortages.  I’ve got the kind of funds to not care if I get vendor price for things (it’s happened by the way, I vendored a ton of MoP items that I miscalled) and only put money on the table that I can afford to piss away.  With this being gold, you shouldn’t care anyhow!  If you disagree or have another idea or want to point out typos, please comment below!

Bugsy:  So?  It’s only dirty paper.  I’ll make more!

Thanks for stopping in!

4 responses to “The Good News Is…

  1. That was a helpful article (thanks for posting it!) But I was wondering about the part on stockpiling crafted reagents – first, if I remember it right, the price for 670-685 tokens went straight to hell on 6.1 patch day (on Zul’jin, but granted demand for heroic-level gear wasn’t as strong after 2 weeks of BRF). Second, the amount of reagents to bring a BoE to top has actually decreased in terms of days needed without primal usage – 55 days (550 / 10) versus 37.5 days (735 / 20). Do you think it’s really unlikely for price per crafted reagent to fail to rise on patch day or, at least, at greater speed than present over time? I’d imagine most people stockpiling and driving down token prices (at least non-felblight ones) lower than current levels. Other than that, I think I largely agree with you

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    • As with all things, there’s always that element of “your guess is as good as mine”. At release, the price of the tokens went into the toilet as the vendor appeared, so everyone made those items.

      I am confused what you’re asking on the second part. I don’t account for price per reagent, I account for the price to craft. This sounds like something from Stede’s spreadsheet, and he and I approach things almost 180 degrees from one another. I’m more of an accountant in this respect while he’s playing more of an economist (concrete vs abstract).

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  2. It’s interesting to read this in the light of hindsight. I saw you say much of this on the Consortium before the patch as well, and remember answering with some of my own counterpoint. Looks like you got much of this right — Just about everything you recommended stocking was worth it

    Even though I agreed with you about the value of saving crafted materials in general, the market got so crazy good for upgrades as everyone else dropped out of it that I still did craft from here right up until the actual patch date was announced. As much as possible I tried to outsource to save my mats, but I ended up crafting a lot myself when my favorite crafters (who sold under my primal cost) weren’t available.

    What I didn’t do was to stockpile the upgrades and keep 2 or 3 around — I tended to have one of each kind on the ah at a time. At first this was out of necessity as I started serious arms dealing in wod after the blood arbitrage closed a month after patch 6.1 with only about 300k gold, so I had to invest most of my net worth just to cover all the really good markets thinly.

    Turns out, if I had realized how they were handling the refunding on unstable upgrades, I would have been much less worried about stock. I thought that the stage 2s would refund nothing, and the 3 and 4s would refund only the difference between them and the old recipe stage 2s. If I’d known they would be refunding the difference between their old recipes and the new stage 2-4 recipe, I’d have stayed stocked full right up to the patch and bought up a bunch of priced under crafting essences and made a heck of a lot more.

    Like

    • I do it, for the people.

      If I was right, great. I had to reread my own article as I quit working that stuff this summer because I chose to play my own version of time travel. =P The hardest part about predicting any market is figuring out what Blizzard’s intention with the design is.

      I recommend that between now and about this Fall you’ll want to eliminate the overstock. As the game continues to lose subs, which is either bizarre or a testament to the current design (take your pick), only the die hards and try hards are going to be left to buy the stuff prior to release.

      Since Legion won’t have garrisons, people will probably still park their asses in their WoD garrisons purely for the gold rewards, unless Blizzard removes those entirely or hits them with the Louisville Slugger of nerfbats.

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